EBook sales to soar in next 3 years
Jinfo Blog

By Penny Crossland

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Having spent the weekend clearing out bookshelves to create more space, I wonder if I should hang on to those books I was about to donate to the local charity shop. They may be valuable in years to come: two recent reports have confirmed that the traditional book is likely to become a rarity.

IHS iSuppli in the US and Enders Analysis in the UK have reported the inevitable: eBook sales on both sides of the Atlantic are exploding and will lead to a decline in the traditional book publishing industry as we know it.

iSuppli’s report on the US publishing industry predicts a 3% decline in the sector overall between 2010 and 2014, despite eBook sales likely to soar by 40% during that period. However, the popularity in eBooks will not halt the overall downward spiral in the book publishing sector, since eBooks are generally priced 40% lower than their paper counterparts.

Within the publishing industry, the market for paper books is forecast to decline by 5%. iSupply predicts total book revenues in the US to fall to $22.7 billion in 2014, down from $25 billion in 2010. According to the report’s analyst Steven Mather, these numbers present a grim picture for the traditional book publishing industry. He maintains that “the industry has entered a phase of disruption that will be as significant as the major changes impacting the music and movie businesses”.

The Enders Analysis research confirms the eBook explosion both in the US and the UK and reports that sales in January and February represented up to 15% of total book sales – buoyed by all those eReaders bought as Christmas gifts. The Enders report believes that this shift in how consumers read books will lead to a fundamental change in the book industry: traditional book sellers will either disappear or have to cut their number of outlets and we will see technology companies becoming important players in the publishing industry.

While some of us more traditionally minded readers will bemoan the demise of the good old-fashioned book, there is no getting away from the fact that libraries will have to respond to consumer demand for eBooks or face further decline in usership. As Info Today reported, US public libraries are preparing to make eBooks available at local libraries. In partnership with Amazon and OverDrive, Kindle Library Lending will enable Kindle owners to borrow eBooks from 11,000 partner libraries, much to the consternation of other eReader manufacturers.

In the UK, discussions are taking place between the Publishers Association and the Society of Chief Librarians about eBook lending in libraries.

To read other LiveWire contributions on eBooks, read Nancy Davis Kho’s postings on Amazon’s Kindle and LexisNexis’ introduction of eBooks.

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