EIU Global Forecasting Service Mini Review: Part 1
Jinfo Blog

By Penny Crossland

Item

Introduction
Many information professionals looking for economic forecasts that go beyond those published by official bodies such as the OECD, the IMF and the World Bank go to EIU publications for help. The Economist Intelligence Unit has always been known for its willingness to stick its head out and provide forecasts over a five-year period covering the global economy. Since the beginning of this year, EIU has put all its forecasts, including those for commodities, exchange rates and world trade, into a new service, the Global Forecasting Service (http://gfs.eiu.com). Free from July 1, the service is available to users after registration on the site.

Audience
The GFS service will appeal to all business researchers and end-users requiring forecasts and analysis of key indicators and issues that influence the economic performance of developed and emerging markets. Users are most likely to work in financial services, market intelligence, management consulting and the media. Anybody involved in emerging markets will find the analysis of global risks particularly useful.

Overview
GFS is not a searchable database. Data is presented in a dashboard style, with drop-down menus and scrolling functions in most of the site's sections. The home page is clearly laid out and visually appealing (see Figure 1), and utilizes a variety of formats: interactive charting, video, PowerPoint presentations, word documents and PDF reports.



Figure 1: GFS dashboard

Content is divided into six main topic areas:

• Economic forecasts
  Users have access to global and regional five-year forecasts, with analysis and data provided in the form of articles, tables and charts. The following regions are covered: World, North America, Japan, Western Europe, Transition Economies (Eastern Europe and Russia), Asia & Australia, Latin America, and Middle East & Africa.
  
  Each region's section has a downloadable table with historical and forecast data on growth and inflation. Articles cover topics such as 'will euro woes spark global contagion?' Charts provide five-year forecasts for GDP and inflation for each region, comparing regional data with world data.
  
  
• World in focus
  This section has analysis of major economic and political trends in the form of articles up to 1,000 words long. Current topics covered are the G20 summit, gold prices and the implications of rapid growth in China and Brazil. Between four and six new articles are added every month and they are available as an RSS feed.
  
  
• Commodities
  In all, GFS covers supply, demand and price projections for 25 commodities. These are divided into ‘hards' (metals, fossil fuel and natural rubber) and 'softs' (beverages, oilseeds, fibres, grains and sugar). Clicking on each commodity results in a chart with five-year supply and demand forecasts. An overview tab has links to brief articles (around 300 words) on current issues such as the ‘price implications of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico', as well as to tables containing 10-year data on supply, demand & price forecasts.
  
  
• World trade
  Issues such as protectionism and the impact of trade talks are covered in this section, with data provided in chart or table formats.
  
  
• Exchange rates
  The main currencies (US$, Canadian $, Yen, Euro, £, Renmimbi) are analysed and charts provide currency projections for five years.
  
  
• Global risk
  GFS analyses what EIU considers to be the ten main risks confronting the world economy and adds risk intensity scores from 1 to 25 to each scenario. For example, the likelihood of the euro zone breaking up is given a global risk intensity score of ‘10' (low probability, very high impact). Clicking on each scenario, results in a substantial article with an analysis of the topic.
  

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