Newsletter No. 135
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FreePint
"Helping 58,000 people use the Web for their work"
http://www.freepint.com/
ISSN 1460-7239 17th April 2003 No.135
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IN THIS ISSUE
EDITORIAL
MY FAVOURITE TIPPLES
By Gary Price
FREEPINT BAR
In Association with Factiva
a Dow Jones & Reuters Company
JOBS
Academic Leader in Information Management
Senior Researcher/Analyst
Database Marketing Manager
Regional Sales Manager
TIPS ARTICLE
"Radio on the Internet"
By Ian Winship
BOOKSHELF
"Domain Names - A Practical Guide"
Reviewed by Helen Clegg
FEATURE ARTICLE
"Scenario Planning"
By Arthur Weiss
EVENTS, GOLD AND FORTHCOMING ARTICLES
CONTACT INFORMATION
ONLINE VERSION WITH ACTIVATED HYPERLINKS
<http://www.freepint.com/issues/170403.htm>
FULLY FORMATTED VERSION
<http://www.freepint.com/issues/170403.pdf>
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*** Library + Information Show - 30th April + 1st May 2003 ***
With over 120 exhibitors and a comprehensive, free seminar programme
spending a day at LiS will prove to be invaluable. Many exhibitors
have chosen LiS to showcase new products & services. You will also
have the opportunity to listen to meet Roger McGough and Joanne
Harris, author of Chocolat et al. For a full list of exhibitors and
seminars please visit our web site. <http://www.lishow.co.uk/pint>
LiS 30th April +1st May 2003, ExCeL, London
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>>> ABOUT FREEPINT <<<
FreePint is an online community of information researchers. Members
receive this free newsletter twice a month: it is packed with tips
on finding quality and reliable business information on the Internet.
Joining is free at <http://www.freepint.com/> and provides access to
a substantial archive of articles, reviews, jobs & events, with
answers to research questions and networking at the FreePint Bar.
Please circulate this newsletter which is best read when printed out.
To receive a fully formatted version as an attachment or a brief
notification when it's online, visit <http://www.freepint.com/member>.
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EDITORIAL
OK, so maybe I've been getting it all wrong in my last few Editorials.
There I was, thinking that we should be inspiring people to become
fully-fledged information professionals. However, colleagues of mine
in the profession have voiced concerns that this may actually diminish
the professional status of people who really are expert information
researchers.
So, what's the balance? One key message that we can convey, and it's
one I've heard many times lately, is that there's more to Internet
searching than just Google. Not only that it is dangerous to limit
research to one set of data, but more importantly, Google doesn't
assess the reliability of the information to which it is linking;
Google only knows about the popularity of a Web site. Another common
misconception is that Google provides answers. It doesn't. It just
links to pages that may contain an answer.
Gary Price, Editor of ResourceShelf, is a real evangelist when it
comes to these issues. He regularly sums things up in compact
sound bites, for example:
"The challenge, especially for information professionals, is to be
aware of and make use of other resources, both general web engines
as well as specialized web resources. It's also essential that we
illustrate to patrons, teachers, and anyone who will listen that
traditional library resources (and our skills) are still vital."
ResourceShelf.com, 13th April 2003
If you're interested in these issues then keep half an eye on the
FreePint Bar <http://www.freepint.com/bar> and of course the
ResourceShelf <http://www.ResourceShelf.com>.
Alongside today's newsletter, we're sending you a separate note about
the "CILIP/FreePint Online Community Award". Make sure you nominate
any online community project which you think has been particularly
successful <http://www.freepint.com/events/cilip-2003/>. There's
also news of the 'FreePint Freedom of Information Exchange', taking
place in London this July <http://www.freepint.com/exchange/>.
We had a very informative and productive time at FAB'03 last week, the
annual Factiva Advisory Board in Princeton, New Jersey. This was our
third year and Factiva are always excellent hosts. A selection of
photos are online <http://www.freepint.com/go/b23373>.
We're sure you'll get a lot out of today's FreePint, and please keep
spreading the word.
Cheers
William
William Hann BSc(Hons) MCLIP
Founder and Managing Editor, FreePint
Email: <william.hann@freepint.com> Tel: +44 (0)1784 420044
Free Pint is a Registered Trademark of Free Pint Limited (R) 1997-2003
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TRADE PARTNERS UK INFORMATION CENTRE TRADE STATISTICS WORKSHOPS
Come along to this FREE seminar and increase your knowledge of
export statistics, a valuable resource for exporters and researchers.
There will also be a demonstration of statistics databases, covering
over 100 countries, which can be used at the Centre. Workshops are on
20 May at Trade Partners UK Information Centre, 66 - 74, Victoria St.,
London, SW1. For more information, call 020 7215 5444/5445
or visit www.tradepartners.gov.uk/information_centre to apply online.
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>>> FreePint Freedom of Information Exchange <<<
22nd July 2003, London, UK
This seminar will provide an overview of the Freedom of Information
Act. The session will cover: practical issues to consider when
implementing FOI; discrepancies between the Data Protection and
Freedom of Information regimes; the role of the publication scheme;
records management issues; handling FOI requests; right of appeal,
complaints procedures & compliance matters; copyright issues.
<http://www.freepint.com/exchange/fi220703.htm>
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MY FAVOURITE TIPPLES
* NewsNow <http://www.newsnow.co.uk> - The amount of resources keeps
growing. An essential news tool! NewsNow's "Live Feed"
<http://www.newsnow.co.uk/livefeed/> turns your computer into a
virtual news ticker.
* AltaVista News Search <http://news.altavista.com> - Greatly
improved. Useful limiting options. A German language version (with
German language content) is now available too.
<http://de.altavista.com/news/default>.
* WebSite-Watcher <http://www.aignes.net> - If you want to monitor
changes on web pages, this is a must-have! It's more than worth the
price. Nevertheless, don't want to spend any money or don't want to
use shareware? Try WatchThatPage.Com <http://www.watchthatpage.com>,
almost as good. The price is right: free!
* GlobalEdge <http://globaledge.msu.edu/> - A large and fact-filled
directory of international business materials from the library at
Michigan St. University.
* Reverse Linking with AllTheWeb <http://www.alltheweb.com> - Most of
you know that with most web engines you can find out who is linking
to a specific web page. For example, with Google you would enter
"link:www.freepint.co.uk" (without the quotes) to find all of the
other pages that link to FreePint's home page. The problem is that
with Google this is as far as you can take it.
For example, you can't ask Google to show you only .edu sites
linking to FreePint. However, with AllTheWeb you can. Simply type
"link:www.freepint.co.uk site:edu". Want to see just pages that link
to the UK Parliament's site on servers in Canada with the word
library in the title? It's easy. Enter, "link:parliament.uk site:ca
title:library". You get the idea!
Gary Price is Editor of ResourceShelf <http://www.resourceshelf.com>,
where he attempts to keep himself and several thousand others current
with new resources, updated sites, useful tools, etc.
Submit your top five favourite Web sites. See the guidelines at
<http://www.freepint.com/author.htm>.
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****Subscribe to Factiva's InfoPro Alliance Newsletter****
As a member of the InfoPro Alliance, you will receive our
monthly e-mail newsletter telling you about the latest enhancements to
Factiva.com, product tips, TechTalk and links to our new online
sessions for advanced searchers
<http://www.factiva.com/infopro>
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FREEPINT BAR
In Association with Factiva
a Dow Jones & Reuters Company
You've heard us talk about being information professionals and
information scientists, but what's really involved? Do you really
need to have a degree? Can the job be done solely over the Internet,
without having to physically be in a library?
These are all questions which have arisen and been answered at the
FreePint Bar over the last few days. There's a lengthy and extremely
informative thread about the "Work environment of Information
Science/Management" <http://www.freepint.com/go/b22337>. A FreePinter
doing a Masters in Information Management asks some direct answers and
gets direct responses <http://www.freepint.com/go/b23362>.
Finally, CILIP (the Chartered Institute of Library and Information
Professionals) get a lengthy and thorough roasting in response to the
posting at <http://www.freepint.com/go/b23047>. It has to be said
they do a thoroughly good job of responding too. Bravo.
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The FreePint Bar is a fantastic free resource where FreePinters help
each other with information queries <http://www.freepint.com/bar>.
Help for students on information-related courses is available at the
FreePint Student Bar <http://www.freepint.com/student>.
Sit back and let the postings come to you by signing up for the
twice-weekly email digest <http://www.freepint.com/member>.
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FREEPINT JOBS
<http://www.freepint.com/jobs>
FreePint Jobs -- information-related jobs in one place.
* VACANCY SEARCHING -- free search and set up a weekly alert profile.
* VACANCY RECRUITING -- post a vacancy for GBP 195 (EUR 285, USD 300).
This week's selected listings are below. All new jobs are posted to
the Bar and Bar Digest (circulation 10,000+). This week's is at
<http://www.freepint.com/go/b23366> and last week's at
<http://www.freepint.com/go/b23264>.
Here are some of the latest featured jobs:
Academic Leader in Information Management
Provide academic and managerial leadership for the team, develop its
portfolio of postgraduate programmes and enhance its research profile.
Recruiter: London Metropolitan University
<http://www.freepint.com/go/j2410>
Senior Researcher/Analyst
Senior Strategic Research Analyst with strong market sizing and
financial analysis skills.
Recruiter: Glen Recruitment
<http://www.freepint.com/go/j2413>
Database Marketing Manager
Experienced marketing professional with flair for copy writing and
compiling databases required for charity think tank.
Recruiter: Recruit Media
<http://www.freepint.com/go/j2414>
Regional Sales Manager
Regional Sales Manager role for someone to sell web-based dbase
solutions across the South of England - basic + uncapped OTE & car.
Recruiter: Sue Hill Recruitment
<http://www.freepint.com/go/j2417>
[The above jobs are paid listings]
Find out more today at <http://www.freepint.com/jobs>
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>>> The CILIP/FreePint Online Community Award <<<
Since group communication and support online have become so
important, the Online Community Award is your chance to nominate
any online community project from any sector that has brought
people with common interests together in a virtual environment:
<http://www.freepint.com/events/cilip-2003/>
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TIPS ARTICLE
<http://www.freepint.com/issues/170403.htm#tips>
"Radio on the Internet"
By Ian Winship
Do you want news from Australia, business or current affairs
information from Hong Kong or just some background music while you
work? Well, Internet radio could be the answer.
What is it? Well it's sound programmes transmitted as streaming audio
files that can be received fairly reliably, even with a low-bandwidth
connection to the Net. You can listen live, to programmes from a
normal radio station that broadcasts in the usual way too; or to one
that transmits only on the Internet. Or you can call up the archives
of many programmes.
It's not clear how many Internet radio stations there are, but claims
in some of the directories below would suggest well over 3,000.
Stations may be general in content - with a variety of programming like
some of the BBC stations - or specialist, concentrating on, say, news
or a particular type of music. Directories tend to group stations into
topic areas or genres, with the large majority for music. The non-
music ones are typically News/current affairs, Talk, Spoken Word,
Government, Religious, Business and so on. The range is wide, as these
very selective random examples show:
* Austrian parliament <http://www.parlament.gv.at/>
* Bloomberg radio <http://www.bloomberg.com/radio/> for business news
* California Waste Management Board <http://www.ciwmb.ca.gov/Broadcast/>
* China Radio International <http://www.cri.com.cn/>
* CSPAN <http://www.c-span.org/watch/cspanradio.asp?Cat=TV&Code=CSR>
- US government activity
* iOGR: Oil and Gas Radio <http://www.oilandgasradio.com/> - news,
markets, employment
* Magyar Katolikus Radio (Hungary) <http://www.mkr.hu/>
* National Public Radio(US) <http://www.npr.org/>
* Personal Success Radio <http://www.personalsuccessradio.com/>
* Radio Australia news <http://www.abc.net.au/ra/default.htm>
* Radio Maria Columbia <http://www.radiomariacol.org/> - religious
* Radio Rwanda <http://www.orinfor.gov.rw/radiorwanda.htm>
* Vatican radio <http://www.vaticanradio.org/>
* Voice of the Mediterranean <http://www.vomradio.com/>
* ZIZ Broadcasting Corporation (Saint Kitts Nevis)
<http://www.zizonline.com/>
There are also lots of stations from universities, US police forces,
US state senates, those that scan US fire department radio, retro
radio with programmes from the 50s, local stations, etc.
Many stations like the BBC and NPR will have discussion,
documentaries, drama, poetry and so on.
If you just want news, for example, then tuning to a station at any
time will usually suffice - finding a particular play or discussion
programme is more difficult, as is noted below.
Not all stations broadcast all day, so remember time differences if
you are looking for overseas stations. The one you want may not be
live at the time you try -- or if you wonder why the music is a bit
relaxed, it's probably because it's 3.00am in California!
Audio software
--------------
To listen, you need a computer with a sound card, speakers and/or
headphones. For speech-based programmes a basic system is fine. For
hi-fi listening then sound card and speaker upgrades will be
necessary.
To deal with the variety of streaming audio software used by stations
you will need RealOne Player <http://uk.real.com/> and Windows Media
Player <http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/> with probably winamp
<http://www.winamp.com/> too for MP3 files. They can all be
downloaded free, though the link to the free RealOne player is a
bit hidden on their site because there is a priced player too.
Stations may offer transmission at different speeds, usually from
24kbps upwards - you may have to choose, or there may be a default.
Make sure the default is a speed you can cope with. Higher speed
should bring better sound quality, though the file format used can
affect that too. (For some background information on formats, see
Internet radio for simpletons
<http://www.operacast.com/simpletons.htm> and Internet radio for
techies <http://www.operacast.com/techies.htm>). A 56k dialup service
will normally cope pretty well with most services, but if you are
paying by the minute you may not want to spend hours listening to
radio programmes this way.
Radio 'tuners'
--------------
A tuner is software on your computer that gives a window (in the shape
of a radio for Sonicbox) with a predetermined collection of stations
in all subjects and arranged by genre. A tuner can be a convenient way
of accessing many stations, but you will doubtless find you want to
listen to others that are not included, so it can seem limiting. Only
currently broadcasting stations are included - you will need to go to
the station web site for any that archive programmes.
The most popular tuners are vTuner <http://www.vtuner.com> and
Sonicbox <http://www.imnetworks.com/imguide/imguide.epl>.
On vTuner you can browse formats (genres) and locations as well as
searching. It notes recent stations you have visited and there's a
list of new stations added. It also has some TV/video programmes
- mainly for news and government, including some traffic webcams.
The software costs $29.95, but you can have a free 15 day trial.
Sonicbox is similar, with a more restricted range of stations. You can
set up your own list of regularly used stations. Searching is
available by a search box on the iM Networks Web site. The software is
downloadable free of charge.
Directories of radio stations
-----------------------------
There are numerous directories of stations - I've concentrated on the
most useful.
radio-locator <http://www.radio-locator.com/>.
Formerly the MIT list of radio stations on the Internet. Probably the
most comprehensive list, with links to over 10,000 radio station web
pages and over 2500 Internet stations.
Search for US radio by location city or zip state and by call letters.
Browse Internet streaming radio by format and world radio by country.
Search by: format, frequency, US state, Canadian province. Search
results give lists of stations with a link to the web site where
available and indicate if its Internet - some searches are only for US
and Canada stations.
BBC Radio Player <http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/aod/index.shtml>.
Archives of BBC radio programmes from various stations, including
Radio Scotland and Radio Ulster, but not local radio. Programmes are
usually available only until the next one in the series has been
broadcast. Arranged by genre - mostly music but has drama - plays,
serials, the Archers - and news - From Our Own Correspondent, World
This Weekend, Today in Parliament, etc. BBC programmes can also be
heard as they are broadcast - go to the station Web site, e.g.
<http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/>.
Live365 <http://www.live365.com/index.live>
Has thousands of Internet-only stations, with many created by
amateurs. (You can create one too!) Some are free to all; registration
gives access to more and allows you to save your favourite stations
and customize directory listings; a USD4.95 per month charge gives
access to additional Live365 stations (as opposed to general Net
stations) and removes the ads.
News and Information via Streaming Audio & Video
<http://www.freepint.com/gary/audio.htm>
From ResourceShelf's Gary Price, this list is still under development and
initially is focusing on English language news sources providing coverage of
the current situation in Iraq. It has the main news radio and TV stations
from major countries. It replaces Gary's now out-of-date 'Current Awareness
Resources via Streaming Audio & Video' to which there is a link.
PublicRadioFan.com <http://www.publicradiofan.com/>
Not as comprehensive a coverage as some. Programme finder by name or
category - business, culture/arts, documentary, education, news,
politics, talk, technology, world affairs. Lists those currently
broadcasting or about to. Station finder - format (i.e. genre). What's
on now list of programmes. Find what's going to be on. Favourites list.
SHOUTcast <http://www.shoutcast.com/>
MP3 files. Doesn't have a great deal other than music where there are
50+ categories. Allows search and browse and has a most popular
stations list.
RadioTower.com <http://www.radiotower.com/>
Browse by country or category. There is a limited range of categories
- only 17 stations in Talk.
Real <http://radio.real.com/>
Lists 110 stations under Talk - the rest are all music. Search by call
letters, frequency, country or city, artist, any keyword. Browse
genres. Some stations are free, but the RealOne basic RadioPass
subscription ($5.95/month) gives access to over 3,000.
UK radio stations broadcasting on the Internet <http://www.radiofeeds.co.uk/>
brs web-radio <http://www.radio-directory.com/>
Predominantly US browse by format, country.
Comfm <http://www.comfm.com/live/radio/>
Categorises by themes (e.g. news, college), targets (e.g. senior) and
moods (e.g. travel, inquire).
General Internet directories like Google Directory and Yahoo also list
stations, but only selectively. They will point to other directories.
<http://directory.google.com/Top/Arts/Radio/Internet/>
<http://directory.google.com/Top/News/Alternative/Radio/?il=1>
<http://directory.google.com/Top/News/Internet_Broadcasts/Audio/?tc=1>
<http://dir.yahoo.com/News_and_Media/Radio/Programs/>
<http://dir.yahoo.com/News_and_Media/Radio/Stations/Web_Directories/>
Programme guides/schedules
--------------------------
There are no comprehensive guides to forthcoming programmes.
PublicRadioFan.com noted above is the most general in coverage, but is
very selective. Otherwise individual station Web sites have programme
details and you may find some specialist listings like those at
Operacast <http://www.operacast.com>.
FreePint readers in UK academic institutions or who are members of the
British Universities Film and Video Council may have access to TRILT:
Television and Radio Index for Learning and Teaching
<http://www.bufvc.ac.uk/databases/trilt.html>. This database has UK
television and radio programme details, including some local radio.
You can browse or search lists of programmes or set up email alerts to
receive weekly notification of forthcoming programmes of interest.
Also for the UK you can trace BBC programmes
<http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/>, or UK stations in general at MediaUK
<http://www.mediauk.com/directory/radio/?schedules=yesplease>.
There's also a guide for BBC World Service
<http://www.bbc.co.uk/cgi-bin/worldservice/psims/ScheduleSDT.cgi>.
Further information
-------------------
The best guide to Internet radio is actually a book:
Heberlein, L.A. "The Rough Guide to Internet Radio", 2002
<http://www.roughguides.com/internetradio/>.
It's an amazing collection of information and includes an extensive
annotated directory, with an emphasis on specific programmes rather
than stations. So you can find the useful: AIDS update on WPKN
<http://www.wpkn.org> (Friday 8-9 Eastern Standard Time) and the more
unexpected: the news in Tongan <http://www.rnzi.com> (Sun-Thur
19.40-19.55 GMT). It's probably a year since it was written so it will
be getting dated in detail, but I find it quite inspiring!
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Ian Winship works in the Learning Resources Department at Northumbria
University and is responsible for managing and facilitating access to
electronic resources and developing new services, though Internet
radio is not yet one of them! Joint author of the Student's guide to
the Internet, which reached three editions, he is a long-time user of
the Internet from the days when the Web was text-only and hyperlinks
were numbers you keyed.
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Related FreePint links:
* 'Broadcasting' articles in the FreePint Portal
<http://www.freepint.com/go/p15>
* Post a message to the author, Ian Winship, or suggest further
resources at the FreePint Bar <http://www.freepint.com/bar>
* Read this article online, with activated hyperlinks
<http://www.freepint.com/issues/170403.htm#feature>
* Access the entire archive of FreePint content
<http://www.freepint.com/portal/content/>
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FREEPINT BOOKSHELF
<http://www.freepint.com/bookshelf>
"Domain Names - A Practical Guide"
Written by Simon Halberstam, Joanne Brook, Jonathan D.C. Turner
Reviewed by Helen Clegg
The world of domain names is a minefield. This book, published by
Tolley's, one of the leading publishers in the area of tax, legal and
business information, is a practical and thorough guide through that
minefield.
The book is divided into six parts: Choosing and registering a domain
name; Sale and transfer of a domain name; Changing domain name
registration; Domain name disputes; FAQs and Appendices. Each part is
further divided into numbered subsections, making citation and
reference very easy.
As a relative newcomer to the world of domain names, I found the first
section on registering a domain name particularly interesting and the
easiest to read. It clearly takes the reader through the process of
what to do when choosing a domain name registration company and
registering the domain name. The authors point out the differences
between different types of domain names and issues to consider when
registering a domain name, for example, country code top level domains
that mislead people such as .co which actually stands for Colombia
rather than "company" and .dj which stands for Djibouti, not disc
jockey. The first section also includes a whole chapter giving
practical advice on registering a domain name as a trade mark,
including the definition of a trade mark and how to go about
conducting both UK and European trade mark searches. Given the
importance companies are attaching to their intellectual property and
brand names, this is extremely useful information.
Part B goes into detail regarding the selling and transferring of a
domain name to another party. This includes model transfer agreements
for both the vendor and the purchaser - useful if you are likely to
become involved in such a process and want to know what will be
involved. Also in section B is an interesting chapter on how to work
out the value of a domain name in monetary terms, with a number of
worked examples.
Part C is a very short section, taking the reader step-by-step through
the process of changing domain name registration information.
Part D, the largest section of the book, looks at domain name
disputes, considering why they arise and what laws, dispute resolution
policies and procedures are available to solve them.
This book is written by lawyers for lawyers, although it is certainly
an excellent reference work for others such as IT managers, business
and legal advisers, who may at some point have to deal with issues
regarding domain names. Those used to reading texts dealing with
legal matters will find this book easy to read; those who aren't may
find it somewhat dry and hard going, although it is evident that the
authors have tried hard not to use complicated legal terminology. As a
marketing analyst, who at present has no involvement with my company's
domain names, I would still include this book on my reference shelf
and be ready to recommend it to colleagues who do. It covers all the
important aspects, is from an authoritative source, includes sample
documents and points out potential pitfalls in dealing with domain
names. On the bottom of the book's front cover are three words
"accuracy, clarity, value", which sum up this text perfectly.
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Helen Clegg is Senior Marketing Analyst with R.R. Donnelley Europe,
based in London. She has a B.A. Hons. in French and German and an
M.Sc. in Library and Information Studies from Loughborough University.
She is a Board Member of the European Chapter of the Special Libraries
Association. Helen writes here in a personal capacity. She can be
contacted at <helen.clegg@rrd.com>.
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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* Find out more about this book online at the FreePint Bookshelf
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* Read customer comments and buy this book at Amazon.co.uk
<http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0754514919/freepint0c>
* "Domain Names: a Practical Guide". ISBN 0754514919,
published by Tolley Publishing, written by Simon Halberstam,
Joanne Brook, Jonathan D.C. Turner
* Search for and purchase any book from Amazon via the FreePint
Bookshelf at <http://www.freepint.com/bookshelf>
* Read about other Internet Strategy books on the FreePint Bookshelf
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To propose an information-related book for review, send details
to <bookshelf@freepint.com>.
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FEATURE ARTICLE
<http://www.freepint.com/issues/170403.htm#feature>
"Scenario Planning"
By Arthur Weiss
It was towards dusk on August 22nd, in the year 2028 when President
Clinton received the news. Her father, William Jefferson Clinton was
dead, three days after celebrating his 82nd birthday. The death was
not unexpected: the doctors had not been confident that the
xeno-transplant had succeeded following the ex-president's heart
attack a week before. Chelsea thought back over her life and her
father, and the events from when she first entered the White House
as a child to when she returned as the second woman President.
But is this a forecast for the future? Scott Adams, in "The Dilbert
Future" said that there are only two ways for predicting the future:
"nutty methods" such as reading horoscopes, tea leaves, tarot cards or
crystal balls, or methods that "put well-researched facts into a
sophisticated computer... commonly referred to as 'a complete waste of
time'".
Unfortunately, if you are in business, and want to stay in business,
anticipating the future is one of the things you have to do. You need
to know quantities to order, amounts to budget, the likelihood of some
event or other occurring and so on. For the short-term - say one or
two years, an extrapolation of current trends will often suffice,
especially if you include an estimate of likely errors. However if you
are looking 10 years, 20 years or even further ahead, or where there
are no obvious trends, then a simple extrapolation is now no longer an
option: the risk of getting it wrong is too great. Instead, you need
to help decision-makers think about the future and what it holds.
Scenario planning is one tool that aims to do this, through the
creation of stories about possible futures that can be used to guide
strategies today.
Scenario planning is not a 'tea leaf'-type technique. It does not
generate forecasts of the future, but instead, paints pictures of
possible futures. The aim is not to sit back and wait for the future
to happen, but to prepare for what might actually occur. Scenario
planning allows decision makers to anticipate potential futures and
prepare action plans today that will safeguard their organisations,
tomorrow, whatever actually does take place.
The technique differs from most other forecasting tools in that it
does not assume that the world tomorrow will be a straight
extrapolation on what is happening today. Instead it looks at the
total environment and how the different parts interact. It will
combine near certainties of the future such as demographic trends,
with uncertainties such as social, technological and political
developments. A number of stories are created with each story mixing
the certainties with some aspects of the uncertainties to give various
outlooks on the future. The planner now looks at the organisation's
strategies and matches them against each story to see how the
organisation would fare should a particular scenario, or part of a
scenario came true. Plans are then modified so that they can withstand
whatever slings and arrows fortune should throw.
Scenario plans are NOT predictions! Although each scenario relates to
a possible future, these futures are not certain. Instead the aim is
to challenge thinking, enabling businesses to make more informed
decisions. By adapting strategies to match each scenario, businesses
prepare themselves for environmental changes that are already in
progress, even if the end results are hidden today.
The technique has had notable successes. Shell Petroleum, an early
adopter of the technique, showed the way by anticipating the 1973 oil
crisis. The resulting strategies helped the company leapfrog their
competitors to become and remain one of the major oil companies. In
South Africa, the "Mont Fleur" scenarios helped move the country from
apartheid to today's inclusive democracy
<http://www.gbn.org/public/gbnstory/downloads/gbn_mont_fleur.pdf>.
The Global Business Network web site <http://www.gbn.org> is one of
the best resources for learning about scenarios - and includes
writings from some of today's pre-eminent scenario planners, and
several examples and anecdotes. GBN members have also contributed
items on other sites. For example, Lawrence Wilkinson, a co-founder of
GBN, contributed to a Wired Magazine issue dedicated to the topic with
an overview on how to build scenarios at
<http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html>. Another excellent
primer on scenario planning was produced by the South Wind Design
Company in 2001, and includes scenarios on the future of hand-held
computers <http://www.swdi.com/ScenPlan.pdf>. The links between
scenario planning and business strategy are outlined in an article by
Tony Hodgson of Metabridge
<http://www.metabridge.com/assoc/stratscen1a.html>. The Metabridge site
also contains an article by Gary Chicoine looking at how we think
about the future, and the dangers of not adopting the
alternative-futures scenario planning approach, because of a
natural tendency to focus on only a single future
<http://www.metabridge.com/assoc/stratscen3.html>. A more detailed
exposition on scenarios and the strategy process is an article by the
GBN member, Kees van der Heijden which looks at how scenarios fit
into the strategy process. It can be found at
<http://www.library.nijenrode.nl/library/publications/nijrep/1997-01/1997-01.html>.
In the history of scenario planning, the Shell petroleum company
features strongly. Shell have made a number of their scenarios
accessible from the Shell web site <http://www.shell.com/strategy>.
These include a longer-term view of energy requirements up to 2050.
A history of scenario planning at Shell was reported in the
International Journal of Futures Studies from 1996
<http://www.systems.org/HTML/fsj-v01/rd-f/rd-f-toc.htm>. This also
includes other relevant material, including another overview of the
aforementioned Mont-Fleur scenarios.
There are a number of scenarios available on the web. Some interesting
scenarios have been produced looking at Europe up to 2010
<http://europa.eu.int/comm/cdp/scenario/index_en.htm>. Now old (they
were completed in 1999), they present five alternative views on how
the authors thought that Europe would change over ten years. Global
trends up to 2015, including four scenarios, as seen by the US
National Intelligence Council can be read at
<http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015/>. Revisiting
such scenarios is always interesting in hindsight. Thus both the
European and the US papers include mention of the threat of terrorism,
including Islamic terrorism - but neither mention a "war against
terrorism". This is understandable as both were written before 9/11.
Scenarios are NOT forecasts, but guides to the future: many of the
elements mentioned in both reports are now apparent. Decision-makers
who had used these and similar reports would be better prepared for
the world today (whose reality consists of elements from several of
the scenarios), than those who just extrapolated forward from their
current situation.
More recent scenarios, looking at business post-9/11 have
been prepared by Accenture, entitled "Business in a Fragile World"
<http://www.accenture.com/xd/xd.asp?it=enweb&xd=ideas\wef\wef_fragile.xml>.
These take into account the current economic slowdown, the war on
terrorism, and anti-globalisation movements, producing four scenarios
aimed at helping business leaders think about how their businesses
could prosper over the next ten years.
Rival consultancy, Deloitte, have produced a series of brief scenarios
looking at a number of business sectors as part of their Strategic
Flexibility framework for example, financial services
<http://www.deloitte.com/vc/0,1639,sid%253D6970%2526cid%253D5628,00.html>,
energy
<http://www.deloitte.com/vc/0,1639,sid%253D1009%2526cid%253D10189,00.html>
and life sciences
<http://www.deloitte.com/vc/0,1639,sid%253D2222%2526cid%253D5484,00.html>.
These also look at potential strategies and include the "Real Options"
approach to selecting strategies.
Creating Scenarios
------------------
So, how do you create scenarios? The first stage is to decide the
focus and timeframe. Some scenarios focus on a national or global
level, many just look at an industry and some will focus on specific
aspects of an industry, market segment or on a geographical region.
The timeframe can also vary: if looking at a rapidly changing
technology, the timeframe could be as short as five years although
generally, scenarios cover longer periods.
The next stage involves a full analysis of the business environment
impacting the selected focus, looking at: industry competition;
technology; social attitudes; the economic situation; new legislation;
as well as the geo-political situation and even issues such as climate
change. Some factors will be almost certain: for example, a scenario
looking at UK secondary education would need to take into account
the fact that there will be 400,000 fewer children aged 10-14 in
the UK in 2013 than there are today
<http://www.statistics.gov.uk/census2001/pop2001/United_Kingdom.asp>.
Following the environmental analysis, a number of driving forces will
be identifiable and the next step is to look at the potential impact
of these driving forces, selecting those appearing to have the most
relevance to the area being considered. These are then used as the
basis for scenario construction. Scenario building is creative and not
a quantitative exercise. The best scenarios read well and challenge
the imagination. They are stories and not management reports. However,
to be actionable, and usable for strategic planning, they also need to
be believable and realistic -- not science fiction or impossible
dreams. They should take account of certainties such as demographics,
and the uncertainties that will only become clear as time passes. It
does not matter if something appears improbable, so long as it is
possible.
Having created the scenarios, the hard work really starts. Apart from
setting up a process that looks for signals indicating change, the
organisation needs to integrate the scenarios into their strategy
planning, ensuring that plans are robust enough to withstand any
adverse future events, and take advantage of opportunities that may
arise.
Further Reading
---------------
There are several books on scenario planning and related topics.
Perhaps the best introduction to the topic is by Peter Schwartz of GBN
- "The Art of the Long View : Planning for the Future in an Uncertain
World" <http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0385267320/awarecompetitivi/>.
Also worth looking at are "Scenarios: The Art of Strategic
Conversation" by Kees Van Der Heiden
<http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0471966398/awarecompetitivi/>
and "Learning from the Future : Competitive Foresight Scenarios" by
Liam Fahey
<http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0471303526/awarecompetitivi/>.
Two seminal papers on scenario planning, by Pierre Wack, from the
Harvard Business Review October and November 1985 issues ("Scenarios:
Uncharted Waters Ahead", HBR, Sept/Oct 1985 and "Scenarios: Shooting
the Rapids" HBR Nov/Dec 1985) can currently be downloaded at
<http://wwwfl.ebs.de/Lehrstuehle/Wirtschaftsinformatik/NEW/
Courses/Semester8/Strategy/#Schedule>,
along with a couple of other relevant articles.
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Arthur Weiss is the managing partner of AWARE, a competitive
intelligence consultancy. He has a particular interest in linking
information to strategy and helping organisations prepare for the
future. Arthur has published papers, lectured and led seminars
worldwide on competitive intelligence, marketing strategy, scenario
planning and related topics. He is a member of the Society of
Competitive Intelligence (SCIP) and a Chartered Marketer with the UK's
Chartered Institute of Marketing. Arthur can be contacted through
AWARE's web-site at <http://www.competitive-intelligence.co.uk>.
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Related FreePint links:
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