IT predictions that really work?
Jinfo Blog

25th January 2010

By Tim Buckley Owen

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When Motorola first introduced its ‘brick’ phone in the 1980s it estimated the eventual global market for mobile phones at just one million. It’s a neat illustration of the pitfalls of trying to predict the technological future – but there are still lessons for information managers in some of Gartner’s Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users, 2010 and Beyond (http://digbig.com/5bayry). In just two years, 20% of businesses will own no IT assets and 20% of the leading cloud computing aggregators will be ‘India-centric’, Gartner says. But cloud computing poses risks, prompting Microsoft’s legal expert Brad Smith to urge the United States Congress to introduce a Cloud Computing Advancement Act to strengthen privacy, deter cybercrime and clarify international rules (http://digbig.com/5baysa). LiveWire has previously highlighted risks associated with the cloud – including entrusting your confidential data to a provider in a foreign jurisdiction (http://www.vivavip.com/go/e27391) and the challenge of choosing the right supplier (http://www.vivavip.com/go/e24000). Not to mention Gartner’s own warning that cloud computing is currently at the top of its hype cycle (http://www.vivavip.com/go/e26680). Facebook is just two years away from becoming the hub for web socialisation, Gartner continues. LiveWire has noted the remarkable rise of Facebook, from first becoming cash flow positive less than six months ago (http://www.vivavip.com/go/e24420) to its dominance of social networking and increasing use for business purposes (http://www.vivavip.com/go/e27558). So it’s no surprise that the latest Junior Achievement/Deloitte Teen Ethics Survey finds young people regarding access to social networks while on the job as a deal breaker in any offer of employment (http://digbig.com/5baysb). Beyond that, the challenges posed both to employers and employees by the freewheeling, informal nature of social networking are legion (try http://www.vivavip.com/go/e25158 or http://www.vivavip.com/go/e26444 or http://www.vivavip.com/go/e27071 for instance). And when you add Outsell’s finding – in its report Use of Interactive Media and Social Networking in Corporate, Healthcare, Education and Government Roles (purchase details at http://digbig.com/5baysc) – that 67% of professionals use handheld devices, that adds a further twist to the plot. By 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common web access device worldwide, Gartner’s prediction continues – a view also reflected in the 2009 Mobile Web Trends Report from online audience measurement specialist Quantcast (http://digbig.com/5baysd). Growing use of smartphones means that the browsing of ‘specialised, simplified sites watered-down for yesterday’s mobile phones’ is no longer good enough, Quantcast concludes. Plenty of information providers are already responding to this trend (try http://www.vivavip.com/go/e27212 or http://www.vivavip.com/go/e27740) – and the implications for information managers struggling to keep track of the clients they serve are no less profound. There’s more from Gartner – about carbon remediation costs being included in most IT business cases by 2014, for instance, and internet marketing being regulated by 2015. Much food for thought here – worth a detailed look.

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